Baltimore—The Goucher Poll asked likely Maryland voters for their opinions regarding candidates for the US Senate race to replace retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski, and regarding candidates in the US Presidential race. Likely voters were also asked about their frequency of political conversation and how many of their close friends were Republicans or Democrats. The Goucher Poll was conducted from September 17-20, surveyed 514 likely Maryland voters and has a margin of error of +/-4.3.
If the election for United States President were held today, 58 percent of Maryland likely voters say they would vote for Hillary Clinton and 25 percent for Donald Trump. Collectively, Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2 percent) and Libertarian Gary Johnson (6 percent) earned 8 percent of the total vote. Eight percent are currently undecided.
Maryland likely voters are mixed on their views toward Clinton. Forty-six percent view her unfavorably and 51 percent view her favorably. Seventy-six percent of voters held an unfavorable view of Trump and 22 percent held a favorable view.
“The Democrat-to-Republican ratio, coupled with a large percentage of African American voters and populous progressive strongholds continue to give Democratic candidates a significant advantage in presidential election years,” said Dr. Mileah Kromer, Director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center. “Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 25 points statewide in 2012, so it’s not surprising that Clinton holds a sizable advantage over Trump in Maryland.”
When asked about the race to replace retiring United States Senator Barbara Mikulski, 54 percent of likely Maryland voters say they will vote for Chris Van Hollen and 24 percent for Republican Kathy Szeliga. Two percent indicate they are voting for Green Party candidate Margaret Flowers and 19 percent remain undecided.
Likely voters were also asked how they viewed the two major party senatorial candidates. Fifty percent of respondents held a favorable view of Democratic candidate Chris Van Hollen, 19 percent held an unfavorable view, and 30 percent indicated they didn’t know. Twenty-eight percent held a favorable view of Republican candidate Kathy Szeliga, 15 percent held an unfavorable view, and 57 percent indicated that they didn’t know.
Bipartisan Friends and Political Conversations
Eighty-two percent of Maryland likely voters indicate that politics comes up in their everyday conversations very or somewhat often. When asked how many of their close friends are Republicans or Democrats, the results were clear—individuals have more close friends that share their political affiliation than otherwise.
Among Republican voters
- 57 percent have some or a lot of Democratic friends
- 83 percent have some or a lot of Republican friends
Among Democratic voters
- 37 percent have some or a lot of Republican friends
- 87 percent have some or a lot of Democratic friends
Mileah Kromer, the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center, will be available for comment. She can be reached directly at mileah.kromer@goucher.edu.
We will be releasing the second part of this poll on Monday, September 26 at 12:01am.